Pricing and offer simulator: discounts, bundles and price increases
A 20% discount can need 50% more orders just to stand still. Compare offers on contribution, not revenue, before the sale goes live.
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Every offer, side by side
The discount trap extra orders needed against extra orders expected
What to do next
How it is calculated
Every offer is judged on contribution: what an order earns after product, shipping, payment and returns, before marketing. A discount comes straight out of that contribution, so the order count has to rise just to stay level.
Orders needed to break even = contribution today ÷ contribution with the offer − 1 Orders expected = (new price ÷ old price)^elasticity Bundle = share of orders buying two at the bundle price, shipped once COD to prepaid saving = (COD RTO − prepaid RTO) × RTO cost + COD fee − incentive
Price sensitivity is set by elasticity: low (−0.8) for loyal or differentiated brands, medium (−1.5) for typical D2C, high (−2.5) for commodity or deal-driven categories. It is an assumption, so test the winner against a holdout before rolling it out.
Questions
How much do sales need to increase to cover a discount?
Divide contribution per order today by contribution per order after the discount, and subtract one. With a 40% contribution margin, a 20% discount halves contribution per order, so you need twice the orders just to break even.
Is a price increase better than a discount?
Often. A price increase adds straight to contribution, so you can lose a meaningful share of orders and still earn more. The simulator shows how many orders you can afford to lose.
Is it worth paying customers to choose prepaid over COD?
Usually, in India. COD orders are refused far more often, and every refusal costs forward and reverse shipping. The simulator shows the incentive at which switching stops paying.
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