Growth plan and revenue forecast: spend to EBITDA and cash

How big can this get, when does it make money, and how much cash does it need on the way? A month-by-month plan from the levers you actually control.

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Currency

Plan length

1Acquisition

Ad spend this month

₹

Spend growth per month

Paid CAC today

Ad spend divided by new customers from paid media, at today's spend.

₹

CAC increase per doubling of spend

Every channel saturates. 15–30% is typical: double the spend and each new customer costs that much more.

Organic customers on top of paid

Word of mouth, SEO, direct: as a share of paid new customers.

2Orders and retention

First order value

₹

Repeat order value

₹

Contribution margin before marketing (CM2)

Work it out in the P&L Builder.

Repeat orders in the month after first order

Of each month's new customers, the share who order again the following month. The Customer Economics Audit measures this.

Monthly fall in repeat orders

3Costs and cash

Fixed costs per month today

₹

Fixed cost growth per month

Cash available today

₹

By quarter

Cash runway from today's cash

Scenarios downside, base, upside

What to do next

EBITDA positive–See plan

Private by design: calculations run on your device. Nothing is stored unless you create a report in your Gran workspace.

Built and reviewed by Shiva Sharma. Updated October 2026.

How it is calculated

The plan runs month by month. Ad spend grows at your chosen rate, and paid CAC rises as spend scales: every doubling of spend makes each new customer more expensive by the percentage you set, which is how real channels saturate. Organic customers are added on top as a share of paid.

Paid CAC(t)     = CAC today × (spend(t) ÷ spend today)^log2(1 + CAC increase per doubling)
Repeat orders   = Σ earlier cohorts × month-one repeat rate × (1 − monthly fall)^(months since)
Revenue         = new customers × first order value + repeat orders × repeat order value
CM3             = revenue × CM2 margin − ad spend
EBITDA          = CM3 − fixed costs

Cash starts at what you have today and moves with EBITDA each month. Working capital, inventory build and tax timing are not modelled, so treat the cash line as a floor on what you need. Downside and upside cases flex CAC and retention together.

Questions

How do I forecast revenue for a D2C brand?

Forecast customers, not revenue. Start from ad spend and CAC to get new customers, add organic, then layer repeat orders from every earlier cohort using your retention curve. Revenue is the result, which keeps the plan honest about what has to be true.

Why does CAC rise as spend grows?

Each channel reaches its cheapest, most responsive audiences first. Scaling spend means bidding for less responsive people, so the marginal customer costs more. A 15 to 30 percent increase per doubling of spend is a common planning range.

When should a D2C business reach EBITDA break-even?

It depends on funding, but the plan should show contribution after marketing (CM3) turning positive early, because that is what eventually covers fixed costs. If CM3 stays negative while spend grows, growth is deepening losses rather than building towards profit.

Where do I get the retention inputs?

The Customer Economics Audit measures the share of customers who order again and how quickly that falls, straight from your orders file.

If growth is the conversation, let’s have it.

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